College Basketball Betting Guide: Jacksonville vs. Notre Dame with OKBET Odds and Picks
The Notre Dame football team has had six days off to reflect on its recent losing streak of three games. The Fighting Irish will play Jacksonville on Tuesday night in South Bend with the goal of getting back into the win column.
The Dolphins are not going to be an easy team to beat, however, as they have a record of 7-3 so far this season, including an impressive victory over VCU by 11 points.
The Dolphins’ defense has been very important to their success. Can they compete effectively enough with the Fighting Irish to keep the game competitive?
The Dolphins of Jacksonville
This season, the Dolphins have suffered defeat at the hands of three different teams: Duke, UAB, and UNC-Wilmington. Not only do all three of them have a significant advantage when it comes to talent, but they were also able to triumph on both ends of the court. The Dolphins were held to 61 points or fewer by each of the teams, something I don’t think Notre Dame will be able to accomplish.
Jacksonville scores only 61.9 points per game on average, and their effective field goal percentage is only 51%. Nevertheless, if the Dolphins are able to make some minor adjustments to their play style, I believe that they will have a significant advantage over Notre Dame.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a field goal percentage of 67% at the rim so far this season, while their field goal percentage in the paint is 49.3%. Especially in recent games, Notre Dame’s performance in the paint defense has been abysmal. The Irish have been in the bottom five percentile of both rim defense and paint defense over the course of their last five games, allowing opponents to hit 71.6% of their shots at the rim and 53.2% of their shots inside the paint.
It would be in Jacksonville’s best interest to shift their focus away from defending the basket and toward attacking it against Notre Dame.
Jacksonville should be able to limit Notre Dame in two areas in which they have been particularly successful this season: getting to the free throw line and on the perimeter. On the defensive side of the ball, Jacksonville will be able to focus on these areas.
Due to the fact that it has allowed only 28.9% of its opponents’ 3-point attempts to be successful, Jacksonville’s 3-point defense is ranked 35th in the nation. The Dolphins allow just 14.9 attempts at free throws per game, which places them 62nd in that category as well.
It will be of the utmost importance to keep Notre Dame away from the free throw line because the Fighting Irish are one of the top five teams in the country and have a free throw shooting percentage of 80.4%.
The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame
One of the things that worries me the most about the Irish is that they won’t be able to capitalize on what has been Jacksonville’s most obvious deficiency throughout this season.
The Dolphins have had significant problems in terms of turning the ball over, as they have done so on 21.3% of their possessions. However, when it comes to forcing opponents to turn the ball over, Notre Dame ranks among the worst teams in the country. When playing against Notre Dame, opponents have only turned the ball over on 12.4% of their possessions, which places them 363rd in the nation.
Another area of concern for Notre Dame is their ability to rebound. Even though neither team has played particularly well, the Irish have had a much harder time of it. Jacksonville averages 8.6 offensive rebounds per game and 27.4 defensive rebounds per game. On the other hand, the Irish only pull down 6.3 rebounds at the offensive end of the court while they pull down 24.5 at the defensive end.
The Irish may have a significant height advantage around the rim, but it didn’t help them against Lipscomb, who outrebounded the Irish despite ranking 234th in average height. Although the Irish have a height advantage around the rim, it didn’t help them against Lipscomb.
Jacksonville vs. Notre Dame Betting Pick
Although I do believe that Notre Dame will be able to get back into the win column with a victory over the Dolphins, I believe that this game will be much closer than the current line indicates it will be. While the Dolphins’ offense should have a good chance of finding some success against Notre Dame, Jacksonville’s defense will be able to hold the Notre Dame offense in check and allow the Dolphins offense to have some success.
Both teams are ranked outside of the top 300 in terms of adjusted tempo, which should help keep this game close because neither team plays at a particularly fast pace. Because neither team commits more than 14 fouls per game on average, free throws are unlikely to be an important factor in this game.
When facing Notre Dame, the Dolphins are a team that I would feel confident betting on at odds of +7 or higher.
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